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#11 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 266 weeks ago
TheMole wrote:Some interesting data from the University of Glasgow. On average, the number of years lost per corona victim so far is 13 years for men and 11 years for women. Of course, given the speed at which research into corona is being released means that these aren't properly peer reviewed reports, but it is the first time scientific research has been done on this topic.
I, personally, find it ethically defendable to sacrifice a certain bit of economic growth to save the lives of people who on average still have about 12 years to live.
Average age of a death to COVID in my state is 79. Average life expectancy in the US 78.5. So people dying by me don't have 12 years left. As around 80% of fatalities in the US are occurring in nursing homes, I don't think that metric would apply here, and I'm curious how the Scots came to that conclusion. I know if I was 80, I'd want 12 more years in a nursing home. How much "economic growth" are you willing to sacrifice? 33% unemployment? How many homes need to be lost and life savings drained so your 80 year old grandmother gets 12 more years in a nursing home? I'm curious where your cutoff is?
So what, we should just accept the anecdotal evidence for your state instead of the only actual scientific report on this?
The problem I see with this whole "economic collapse" argument is that no one is able to pinpoint the actual real-world impact of this. So what if the stock market is down? The economy is a societal construct anyway, we as a society have all the tools at hand to mitigate the impact of the lockdown on the economy and most countries seem to be rather successful in doing so. In most Western countries, defaults on morgages are not up significantly, foreclosures are not up significantly, etc... because the gov't is doing their job and addressing these things, temporarily changing the rules of the game. Seems to me the biggest problem for the US economy is the federal government half-assing it, as usual.
As for my cutoff, hard to say. I do know that I'd rather lose my job than lose my grandmother... If this pandemic means I have to get furloughed until this thing blows over, so be it. Banks have been ordered by the government to put mortgage payments on hold anyway. But that's just how things go in a socialist European country, I know things are different stateside.
#12 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 266 weeks ago
mitchejw wrote:We know that's how you do it. Glad you can admit it.
Did you really just "I'm rubber, you're glue" the guy?
#13 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 267 weeks ago
Some interesting data from the University of Glasgow. On average, the number of years lost per corona victim so far is 13 years for men and 11 years for women. Of course, given the speed at which research into corona is being released means that these aren't properly peer reviewed reports, but it is the first time scientific research has been done on this topic.
I, personally, find it ethically defendable to sacrifice a certain bit of economic growth to save the lives of people who on average still have about 12 years to live.
#14 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 267 weeks ago
Around 75k deaths in the US so far. The IHME has revised its model and is now projecting an overall death toll of 135k by beginning of August.
So, now that the whole "no worse than the flu argument" has been proven baseless, how many people need to die for you pro-economy folks to accept the lockdown measures you're railing against? 100k? 200k?
#15 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 267 weeks ago
The IMHE model has been the most accurate, and presently predicts 72k deaths in the US by August. That's 5k more than our dead today, out of a country of 330 million. The numbers are there, the death rate is coming to a crawl. I don't know what else you're expecting from me other than the data doesn't support us hitting 100k dead, let alone millions.
So far, the IHME model has proven to be far from accurate. Let alone the anecdotal evidence here in this thread (67k by end of June, vs just 4 days later is a ridiculously bad prediction), but statistical experts seem to agree: https://arxiv.org/abs/2004.04734
A more digestable version of that research can be read here: https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2020 … e-pandemic
1.) The current means of calculating COVID-19 deaths results in its figures being over represented rather than the opposite
All cause mortality in the US is significantly higher than last year, and on average the differences cannot be fully explained by the official number of Corona deaths. That implies that COVID-19 deaths in the US are likely undercounted at this point. Also note that quarantine measures should normally lead to less non-COVID-19 related deaths, with things like car accidents, other infectuous diseases, etc.. going down as well.
More info here: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/202 … total.html
#16 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 268 weeks ago
TheMole wrote:TheMole wrote:65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...
And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.Well, they are constantly adding to the data, so sure. I mean the data is flawed data. Garbage in, garbage out.
That's a non sequitur, the question was directed at Flagg. Since he was drawing seemingly odd (to me) conclusions from the very same data, I'd be interested in understanding how he came to those conclusions.
#17 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 268 weeks ago
Randall Flagg wrote:TheMole wrote:Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...
The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago. And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement. The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers. It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure. Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.
65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...
And, as predicted, we've surpassed the 67k mark today.
Also, about that so called "peak", I feel a better description might be "plateau". A peak implies a downward trend, and looking at the data for the past two weeks does not show a downward trend at all. The country seems to be hovering between 1500 and 2000 deaths per day fairly consistently.
#18 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 268 weeks ago
TheMole wrote:Randall Flagg wrote:We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.
Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...
The only site that’s aggregating all data. The one being run by Bill Gates. This one :
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america
You’re right that we’re going to hit 60k in the next week or so, but you’re ignoring that the US peaked 15 days ago. And as I've said repeatedly, trusting unvetted numbers from people (like my State) that were/are counting people they assume had COVID without a test, isn't an accurate statement. The CDC says they're counting pneumonia and influenza deaths in their COVID numbers. It's linked a couple posts up for your reading pleasure. Germany and other nations aren't doing that, and our mortality rate relative to infected and population is still #2 in the world.
65k deaths in the US today according to the CDC (as reported by the Johns Hopkins tracker), so sticking with my prediction of the US hitting 67k tomorrow or the day after. I still really don't understand how you were getting to 67k by August...
#19 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 268 weeks ago
We're projected to have 67k dead from COVID by August, slightly more than the flu in 2018.
Where are you getting that? A simple extrapolation of the data shows that you're likely to hit 67k deaths in the next three or four days...
#20 Re: The Garden » Covid 19 » 271 weeks ago
PaSnow wrote:Ever see Outer Banks or Florida board up with plywood & shut down for a hurricane?? Guess they shouldn't do that then, huh?
BOOM! Weather analogy. Ruined.
LOL...good try buddy! This is exactly what chumps do when they have nothing. Game over, I'm done with you too.
I'll start by defending the idea of flattening the curve. It is designed to do exactly what you say it does: spread out the number of cases over a longer period of time. This is so the healthcare system doesn't get overwhelmed, and we can give people that fall ill the care they need to survive. This lowers the number of death in the long run. Until there is a truly effective cure or vaccine, this is unfortunately our only way of mitigating the impact of this pandemic. You can argue over the breadth and duration of the measures we need to take, but it's hard to argue against the general principle I think.
Personally, I believe that we as a society owe it ourselves to prioritize our health over the economy, given that the latter is only a societal construct anyway. I believe that even having to endure an extended lockdown will not "destroy" our economy beyond the point of repair. The basic human needs and desires that fuel our economy have not gone away, they've just taken a backseat to more pressing matters. Once this whole thing is over, priorities will shift again and business will return to normal. Sure, some companies will go belly up, but new ones will rise from their ashes as demand for the goods and services they provided returns, creating new jobs along the way. The economy will bounce back, there's no bouncing back from death.
As a final remark Buzz, as I was catching up with the forum while my significant other was having a Skype party with her girlfriends I was struck by your vitriolic and hostile tone. Sure, there's one or two posts that are genuinely worth reading and considering, but the bulk of it is you spewing venom at those not willing to accept your truth. If you want to engage in a discussion, the onus is on you to convey your message in a way that resonates with your peers. If you don't succeed at that, it is your responsibility to solve it (which is rarely achieved by calling people idiots, chumps or retards) or to simply bow out and take your discussion somewhere more open to your way of thinking. You cannot demand others to "go away".
